Optimism Grows

Disruption Continues

There has been much reason for pessimism these past few years between the pandemic, supply chain issues, the current war in Europe, and perhaps most notably the incredible disruptions caused by the internet. 

• I think nothing more clearly illustrates our transition to the Information Age as global citizens than the myriad “mass scale events”’ seen across every business sector, nation, language, and religion in the last decade. 

The NotPetya attack on A.P. Moller-Maersk, the Arab Spring, Isis’ foreign recruiting abilities, the US Capitol Riot, Syrian / North African migrations, the rise of cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, the Reddit thread WallStreetBets causing huge Hedge Fund losses on the stock of Gamestop, and many more that are too numerous to list here.  

• The overarching commonality between these movements / events is that they are almost entirely organized through, or the direct result of, the internet.

This is perhaps the single most influential revolution in our lifetimes and I highly recommend reading, The Sovereign Individual, for an eye-opening perspective on this transition.

Optimism Grows

With all that being said, I view 2023, 2024, and beyond with great optimism - I find 3 main reasons:  

1. ENERGY - The recent nuclear fusion reaction at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California that, for the first time in history, produced more energy than it consumed.
    

   • This is a major milestone for clean energy and a carbon free future.
      

   • Wall Street, Private Equity, and Venture Capital are increasingly more likely to invest into hard science based startups these days over taxis and food.
      

2. LOGISTICS - The supply chain related slowdowns from COVID-19 have largely dissipated with many routes back to normal and fewer rolled bookings.

   • Hopefully this leads to more consistent cash flows.
      

3. TRAVEL - With China finally lifting the longest running COVID-19 related restrictions, and almost everywhere else eliminating inbound quarantines I expect to see business travel rebounding over 2023 and 2024.

Almond Shipments Return to Historic Norms

Total annual California Almond Exports experienced truly unprecedented disruption during the 2019 / 2020 marketing year due to COVID-19.  

• Since Anderson Exports started tracking the shipment data during the 2014 / 2015 season, California almond exports have continued steady growth year over year.

Total annual exports in 2019 / 2020 were an exceptionally low 753.78 million lbs with a massive rebound in 2020 / 2021 leading to a record breaking (so far) total annual exports of 2.09 billion lbs.

• Based on recent monthly California almond export data, we expect the 2022 / 2023 season to post strong total annual shipments showing continued growth.

Almond shipments may be off to a slow start in the 2022 /2023 marketing year with October and November reporting their lowest export levels in some time.

• This could be a result of the record breaking shipments in 2021 / 2022 leading to a lower than normal carryout, or it could be the result of a strong US Dollar, or some combination of both.

We suspect December shipments should recover more inline with historic trends, although the effects of purchasing power / currency differences this marketing year will not be known for some time.

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