Pecans
New crop pecan prices will be available within one month and current expectations are for a good crop. The pecan industry is expected to carry-out approximately 210MM pounds from 2018 which is about 25% higher than the carry-out levels in recent years. A typical carry-out is 160MM pounds, which is much lower than the current estimate for the 2018 carry-out. If accurate, this carry-out would be the second largest on record.
Higher than normal carry-in to the new 2019 pecan crop may be helpful in terms of supporting overall industry supply since early reports are indicating the Mexican crop may be down as much as 10 - 15% compared to last year.
For the new U.S. 2019 pecan crop, there are currently two estimates: 257MM lbs from the Texas Pecan Growers Association and 266MM lbs from the Tri-State Growers Association.
The Tri-State Growers Association is estimating a larger 2019 pecan crop compared to the Texas Growers Association primarily due to higher estimates for New Mexico (+5MM lbs), Texas (+8MM lbs), and other states (+9MM lbs) partially offset by a lower estimate for Georgia (-13MM lbs).
Taking into account the U.S. crop estimates, higher carry-in, and lower crop in Mexico, the pecan industry may end up with total supply which is quite similar to last year. Provided these estimates are correct, there should be adequate supply to meet global demand.
China is a major buyer of U.S. pecans so the trade war and tariff situation will certainly impact marketing of the new crop as it did last year. If the trade war continues, some expect a similar pattern for prices as we saw last year. Namely, growers hold the line for October / December on in-shell prices and then prices bottom out in January / April, potentially with lower starting points on pricing. If the trade war is resolved and Chinese purchasing resurges, expect higher prices but with South Africa’s emerging supply on pecans, U.S. prices will probably not return to or exceed higher levels in past years.
We supply Fancy Junior Mammoth Halves (FJMH), Fancy Mammoth Halves, Fancy Pieces, and other sizes / types for all major U.S. pecan varieties.
Walnuts
Buyers are eager to put new crop California in-shell walnut orders on the books but nearly all packers are remaining patient and awaiting the Objective Estimate in September. In-shell Chandler walnut prices under discussion are slightly higher than a couple of weeks ago which is understandable given the combination of tentative suppliers and motivated buyers. It remains to be seen where prices will settle and the Objective Estimate will certainly play a significant role in determining the prices for new crop California Chandler in-shell walnuts.
We work with California walnut packers to supply our customers with Jumbo and Jumbo / Large (J/L) in-shell Chandler, Howard, Hartley, Vina, Tulare, Serr and other varieties. We also provide bleached in-shell walnuts in addition to California shelled product including Chandler and non-Chandler Light Halves & Pieces (LHP) 20%, 40%, 80% and higher based on customer requirements. We also supply Combo Halves and Pieces (CHP) and Light Sorted Pieces (LSP).
Almonds
An extremely tight transition to new crop is underway in almonds. The latest Position Report for July showed shipments of 154MM lbs, setting a new record for July and exceeding last year by 7%. Overall, on a year-to-date basis, shipments totaled 2.26 billion pounds, just ahead of 2.25 billion pounds in the prior year. With these very strong shipment numbers and a smaller-than-expected new crop of 2.2 billion pounds based on the Objective Estimate, stocks are light and prices are firming, especially for pollinators. For new crop, in-shell offers are available along with first available shipment orders though many suppliers are only slowly and cautiously offering until crop receipts can be assessed directly.
Our most popular almond varieties are Nonpareil, Independence, Butte/Padre, and Carmel types with the most popular grades of Supreme, Extra, Standard 5%, and more.
Raisins
Prices for California Natural Thompson Seedless raisins are stable. Sellers remain motivated to move tonnage so volume contracts are an ideal way to secure the most competitive price.
We supply all major bulk California raisins including dried-on-the-vine (DOV) and tray-dried Natural Thompson Seedless Selects, Selma Petes, Flames, Goldens, and other varieties in Jumbo, Select, and Midget sizes and welcome your inquiries. We also supply Selma Pete DOV Double-Run Supreme raisins to Japan and elsewhere which are processed twice to achieve exceptionally low stem and capstem counts. We offer multiple packaging options including custom boxes with client branding, supplier branded boxes, and blank unbranded boxes.
Cranberries
Prices for bulk sweetened dried cranberries (SDCs) remained stable in recent weeks. The standard sourcing challenges remain with respect to conventional SDCs though there remains good availability on organic whole and sliced SDCs.
We supply Conventional and Organic Whole or Sliced Sweetened Dried Cranberries (SDCs) packed in bulk cases as well as Organic Apple Juice Sweetened varieties. We also work with quarter inch diced and other diced cranberry products available as per client requirement. In addition, we supply 50 Brix and 65 Brix cranberry concentrate shipped in bulk 55 gallon drums.